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TIGO ENERGY, INC. (TYGO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue rose to $17.3M, up 21.3% sequentially and 86.8% year over year; however, a $19.5M inventory charge drove gross margin to -72.7% and widened GAAP net loss to $26.8M .
  • Excluding reserves, management indicated underlying gross margins ~40% in Q4 and mid-30s to upper-30s going forward, supported by TS4-X mix and cost-downs .
  • Guidance: Q1 2025 revenue $17–$19M and adjusted EBITDA loss $2.5–$4.5M; FY 2025 revenue $85–$100M, with adjusted EBITDA breakeven targeted on ~$25–$28M quarterly revenue at mid-30s margins, implying second-half profitability on an adjusted basis .
  • Stock narrative catalyst: strong sequential/top-line momentum and EMEA/Americas strength vs. headline inventory charge in GO ESS batteries; management says ~90% of ESS inventory reserved, removing a major uncertainty and supporting margin normalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Four consecutive quarters of sequential revenue growth; Q4 revenue +21.3% q/q and +86.8% y/y, with strength in EMEA ($11.2M, 65%) and Americas ($4.6M, 27%) .
  • TS4-X product family driving healthier margins and large-scale wins (e.g., 142MW in Spain; 97k devices in Brazil); management: “we continue to gain market share” .
  • Emerging software traction: Predict+ meters under management grew to 101,000 in Q4, with six new contracts ($1.4M multi-year value); CEO also cited 140,000 meters and ~600 GWh under management as of year-end in prepared remarks .

What Went Wrong

  • A $19.5M Q4 inventory charge (GO ESS batteries) caused gross loss (-72.7% margin) and widened adjusted EBITDA loss to $22.1M and GAAP net loss to $26.8M .
  • APAC weakened in Q4 (9% of revenue; -44% q/q) as battery pricing pressure and competitive intensity persisted in storage/inverter markets .
  • Full-year 2024 revenues fell 62.8% to $54.0M; GAAP net loss widened to $62.7M (includes $23.5M inventory charges), highlighting the magnitude of the industry downturn and ESS drag .

Financial Results

Quarterly financials (Q2 → Q3 → Q4 2024)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$12.701 $14.237 $17.274
Gross Margin %30.4% 12.5% -72.7%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$12.270 $12.191 $11.526
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$11.321 $13.117 $26.802
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.19 -$0.22 -$0.44
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$6.398 -$8.326 -$22.060

YoY comparison (Q4 2023 vs Q4 2024)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.245 $17.274
Gross Margin %31.1% -72.7%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$16.418 $11.526
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$14.774 $26.802
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.25 -$0.44
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$11.585 -$22.060

Segment breakdown (Q4 2024)

RegionRevenue ($USD Millions)Mix (%)
EMEA$11.2 65%
Americas$4.6 27%
APAC$1.5 9%

Regional mix trend (percent of revenue)

RegionQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EMEA55% 60% 65%
Americas22% 21% 27%
APAC23% 19% 9%

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
MLPE units shipped378,000 403,000 480,000
MWdc shipped (assumption stated)~144 MWdc (400W avg) ~202 MWdc (500W avg) ~240 MWdc (500W avg)
Predict+ meters under management—62,000 101,000
Predict+ new agreements (multi-year value)—$0.7M $1.4M
Inventory chargesReserve activity immaterial vs Q3/Q4; $0.458M six-month obsolescence reserve detail $3.4M (batteries) $19.5M (GO ESS)
Cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities$20.2M $19.5M $19.9M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/ActualChange
RevenueQ4 2024$14–$17M $17.274M actual Above high end
Adjusted EBITDA lossQ4 2024$(6.5)–$(8.5)M $(22.060)M actual; driven by $19.5M inventory charge Miss (inventory-driven)
RevenueQ1 2025—$17–$19M New
Adjusted EBITDA lossQ1 2025—$(2.5)–$(4.5)M New
RevenueFY 2025—$85–$100M New
Gross margin (ex reserve)Forward outlookMid-30% normalized (prior commentary) Q4 ex reserve ~40.2%; outlook mid- to upper-30% Maintained-to-higher
Cash OpExNear term—Sub-$10M; Q4 ~<$9.5M New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (prior)Q3 2024 (prior)Q4 2024 (current)Trend
AI/technology initiatives (Predict+/EI)Launched EI Professional; expanding paid tiers Predict+ at 62k meters; $0.7M contracts Predict+ 101k meters; six new contracts $1.4M; CEO cited 140k meters and ~600 GWh under management Accelerating adoption
Supply chain/channelChannel largely cleared; demand recovery slower than expected Channel mostly cleared; repeat orders trending up Orders “brand new into inventory”; inventory reduced; ESS inventory reserved ~90% Improving normalization
Tariffs/macroSluggish recovery; cash flow breakeven possible in Q4 “Headwinds” remain, but momentum building Production largely in Thailand; no current tariff targeting observed Cautiously positive
Product performance (TS4-X)TS4-X introduced; largest 142MW Spain order Continued TS4-X adoption; market share gains TS4-X margins “very healthy”; cost-downs continuing Positive mix/margins
Regional trendsEMEA 55%, Americas 22%, APAC 23% EMEA 60%, Americas 21%, APAC 19% EMEA 65%, Americas 27%, APAC 9% Mix shifting to EMEA
Regulatory/licensingMidnite Solar rapid shutdown licensee Costa Rica rapid shutdown partnership New rapid shutdown licensee Zerun Expanding safety footprint

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We are pleased to report a 21.3% sequential increase… and an 86.8% increase… These results reflect the continuation of the trend of sequential revenue increases… in the last four quarters” .
  • CFO: “During the quarter, we recorded an inventory charge of $19.5M… primarily for excess and slow-moving inventory within our GO ESS product line… absent the charge, our results reflect progress toward profitability on a non-GAAP basis” .
  • CFO detailed Q4 region mix and margin normalization: “EMEA revenue was $11.2M (65%)… Americas $4.6M (27%)… APAC $1.5M (9%)… Q4 ex reserve was 40.2%; we are comfortable with mid- to upper-30s” .
  • CEO on Predict+: “Predict+… has grown from 15,000 to 140,000 meters under management… covers a total of 600 GWh of energy at year-end” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Inventory reserves: prior guidance contemplated reserves, but the Q4 charge exceeded initial assumptions; ~90% of ESS inventory now reserved, leaving ~$2.1M NBV .
  • Gross margins ex reserve: Q3 ~36.5%; Q4 ~40.2%; outlook mid- to upper-30s driven by TS4-X mix and cost-downs .
  • EBITDA breakeven path: ~$25–$28M quarterly revenue at mid-30s margins; adjusted EBITDA profitability expected in 2H 2025 (Q3 at midpoint) .
  • Geographic mix outlook: EMEA ~65% and North America ~30% expected through 2025; Germany/U.K. viewed as robust for Tigo .
  • Tesla pairing: increasing customer requests to use Tigo optimizers with Powerwall 3; optimizers compatible with Tesla’s inverter-only product as well .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus data via S&P Global was unavailable at time of retrieval; therefore, consensus EPS and revenue estimates, and beats/misses vs consensus cannot be provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to API limits.
  • Where relevant, company guidance indicates Q1 2025 revenue $17–$19M and adjusted EBITDA loss $(2.5)–$(4.5)M; FY 2025 revenue $85–$100M, which may lead analysts to revise EBITDA trajectory and margin assumptions higher, given ex-reserve margins and inventory normalization .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying demand momentum continues: Q4 revenue +21% q/q and +87% y/y, with EMEA/Americas mix improving; four straight quarters of sequential growth support 2025 top-line guide .
  • The ESS inventory overhang is largely addressed (~90% reserved), reducing uncertainty and clarifying normalized margin power in the mid- to upper-30s on TS4-X-led mix .
  • Near-term P&L still pressured by non-cash inventory reserves, but cash burn was modest in Q4 and cash+marketable securities increased to $19.9M; watch working-capital discipline and OpEx control (sub-$10M cash OpEx) .
  • Execution focus: landing/expanding in EMEA/U.S.; large C&I/utility-scale wins and Predict+ ARR growth add diversification beyond residential cycles .
  • Trading setup: headlines around the $19.5M charge vs. improving ex-reserve margins and Q1/FY 2025 guide—stock likely reacts to visibility on margin normalization and cadence to EBITDA breakeven (~$25–$28M quarterly revenue) .
  • Risk monitor: battery pricing pressure in ESS, APAC softness, and broader macro headwinds; benefits from Thailand manufacturing footprint re: tariff risk mitigation .
  • Upcoming catalyst path: deliver on Q1 guide, continue sequential growth, demonstrate margin normalization without further large reserve charges; track Predict+ metrics and TS4-X mix .

Appendix: Prior Quarter Snapshot (for Trend Analysis)

  • Q3 2024: Revenue $14.2M; gross margin 12.5%; adjusted EBITDA loss $8.3M; Q4 guidance $14–$17M revenue, $(6.5)–$(8.5)M adjusted EBITDA loss; inventory charge $3.4M (batteries) .
  • Q2 2024: Revenue $12.7M; gross margin 30.4%; adjusted EBITDA loss $6.4M; TS4-X launch; 142MW Spain win; EI Professional introduced .